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March 16 - 17th 2005
Monterey California
Introduction of the methodology of Fire Signature Profiling
- Computer Modeling used to provide the basis for fire
potential in the absence of actual fire on the terrain.
- Incorporates assumptions of weather, fuels and
terrain.
- One must know the model's limitations.
- The model attempts to produce a representation of a
fire and its behavior using pre-determined values of weather,
topography and fuels.
- Fire Signature evaluation used to determine actual
on scene fire behavior variations and thresholds of control.
- More of a tactical tool focused on when and where there will be
changes in the fire's intensity.
- Useful in predicting the actual fire intensity by using an
understanding that similar forces and alignments produce similar
fire behavior.
- Fewer assumptions are made because what is observed is the ground
truth that the model is trying to represent.
- One must know the limitations of this model.
History of the Fire Signature Prediction Method:
The method was tested on the Kirk Fire in Monterey County during
September of 1999 and since then on numerous wildland fires from that
time to the present.
The fire signature concept was used to make decisions that assured
tactical successes and limited repeating engagements that failed to meet
objectives.
Ten years of development in Ventura County Fire Department's prescribed
burning program on ninety-eight Rx burns tuned up the processes.
A Test Burn Analysis format was developed, as was an improved and
stylized escape analysis.
This resulted in a Fire Signature Analysis form that logs the forces
acting on the fire-ground and observed fire behavior results. These
values represent the ground truth. The Computer Model can be adjusted to
agree with the observed fire behavior.
Types of Fires:
Wind driven, fuels dominated, topography fires and blow-up events on
fires.
Each type has a tactical match that has proven most successful.
The first step in determining the strategy is to match the
tactical approach to the type of fire.
The second step is to make observations to determine when and
where the significant variations are occurring and predict where and
when they will replicate.
The third step is to determine where the thresholds of control
are likely to be on the fireground.
The method utilizes…
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Trigger Points (locations where the fire behavior
will significantly change, get worse or easer to control)
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Tracks (The centerline of a fire running beyond the
threshold of control)
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First-run perimeters from the trigger points.
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Threshold opportunities (Signed off by Ops.)
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Time Tags (Times when areas become dangerous based
on past fire signatures.)
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A G.I.S. Map (For briefings and IAPs showing these
locations.
Summary
The Wildland Fire Signature Evaluation Method needs to be utilized on
every wildland and prescribed fire in the area to assure that the
assumptions made are valid and or are adjusted for significant error.
The first responders need to assure that they have the necessary
personnel trained and in place to accomplish the procedures.
Using these procedures will assure that this product becomes a living
document with meaning for the fire department personnel.
Displays:
Fire Signature Analysis Form
Escape Analysis Map, Rx burn, Adams Canyon
Wildfire Escape Analysis IAP Map.
Solid Terrain Model
Submitted by
Doug Campbell
Wildland Fire Specialists
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